Sports bets can be quite profitable if a person know the strategies often the “smart money” bettors employ to consistently make money. One of the primary secrets that smart money bettors use is definitely knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a perfect example of this. I actually analyzed the West Virginia vs. Louisville video game, and concluded that West Florida had the edge in the video game. Nonetheless My spouse and i also recognized that there initially were a great deal of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to a clients that they accomplish not wager on this game. Here is my analysis I released before the game:
West California versus Louisville
This activity features all the signals of being one involving the very best games of the year, together with both equally teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 ranked West Virginia as opposed to. #5 ranked Louisville, equally using high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s video game was a classic, together with Rest of the world Virginia coming rear from becoming down large in the fourth quarter to winning within overtime, however,.
So what’s the action seem like this year?
In case this video game were being played with a simple field, West Va will probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since often the game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia will be on an unprecedented throw. These people haven’t lost given that July. 1, 2005, planning 14-0 since they lost to California Tech. Inside the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS likewise. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last being unfaithful activities overall, and 8-2 ATS in their very last 10 HIGHWAY games.
These kind of are some very extraordinary stats that tilt typically the scales in favor of WVU for tonight’s online game. Plus, this added reward is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This will likely not appear like quite a bit, but in a close up match-up such as this, that special point might make the difference between some sort of push in addition to a loss.
But what about Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers are really almost as good because WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their particular final 10 games, Louisville is actually 4-6 ATS. Of which said, Louisville is even so 7-3 ATS within their very last 10 home activities.
And if you’re leaning to WVU, here’s a daunting stat… Louisville hasn’t dropped in your own home since Dec 20, 2003! During this present run Louisville is averaging 49. 5 points per game at home, while averaging only leaving behind 15. 7 points for each game at home. In case you failed to do the mathmatical, that means due to the fact their very own last home damage they have already averaged beating his or her opponents by about 34 details per game.
Even greater remarkable, the average line in these games has only already been 21 points. That stands for Louisville has beaten often the range, on average, simply by 13 points per activity at home considering that 2003.
Wow… how can fun88th go against that?
Here’s exactly how…
Most of those stats have been built up during the 2006 season. Shock as to, 2006, Louisville has been closer to excellent than great. They also have experienced recent games through which they also have only scored 36, 12, 24 points. And the games weren’t against Iowa St. or Michigan. Many people were against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.
The end result is that will this is still some sort of close sport to get in touch with. Nevertheless what I look to get is West Virginia’s safety to carry the working day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St. can all hold Louisville under 30 points, then there’s virtually no reason to think WVU can’t have one to the particular low to middle of the 20’s. My honest suggestion is usually to lay off this particular game and definitely not bet at all. There are better games this end of the week with more clear-cut positive aspects.
The final score with this game was Louisville forty four, West Las vegas 34. Lousiville won because West Virginia had 6 fumbles plus allowed Lousiville to come back some sort of punt for the TD. The bottom line was the fact that West Virginia’s border weren’t so big which they may possibly still win following doing so many mistakes. By means of not betting on this kind of sport, people really serious about wagering saved money they will can put to better make use of on future games.